Being late in the flat season, the race can be run on testing but it does usually drum up plenty of interest with good-sized fields. Once we’ve identified likely fast finishers in the field, we need to overlay the circumstances in which they recorded their fast finish on top of how we perceive today’s race will be run. If, on the other hand, there was no obvious pace horse – or a single front runner – we should probably be more interested in the 111% fast finisher, which has shown its ability to quicken takingly off a pedestrian pace.
History of Racing in Cheltenham
- If you like to have a flutter, don’t put up with a mediocre bookie.
- AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time.
- Well beaten by Altior at Sandown later and he looks to have had his day in the sun.
- Not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time.
- 2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded.
- 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle.
- Amber Cottage, Cheltenham A cosy, semi-detached, holiday home built in traditional, honey-coloured Cotswold stone made even more fantastic thanks to shared facilities including an outdoor swimming pool.
- Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP.
- He has won by a combined 122 lengths in his 5 point to point starts and if the form holds up here, he will be very hard to beat and it’s hard to see him out of the frame.
Queen Anne helped to establish the Royal Ascot, one of the biggest races still in the British racing calendar. By the end of the 1830s, another of Britain’s great races – the Grand National – had been established at Aintree. This is one of the oldest sports in the UK by far, and interest in it has stayed steady throughout the years. This is a deep race and there’s plenty with chances including the likes of Corbett Cross and Three Card Brag. It is hard to put anyone off backing either of those too but with such a competitive renewal of this race I don’t want to get stuck into something at a shortish price.
Goodwood on Friday: Tips and runners for every race including the King George Stakes
- Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite.
- The evidence of that effort is that going up to six furlongs is very much the right move, and an opening British Horseracing Authority mark of 87 looks within touching distance.
- Both Jalon D’oudairies & Romeo Coolio, trained by Gordon Elliott, stand out as strong contenders, and it’s difficult to choose between the two.
- Subsequently stepped up to this range, she won either side of a non-completion when badly hampered by a faller.
- At the top table this term, she’s found life tougher, twice getting a distant view of Sharjah’s tail before finishing closer to Honeysuckle albeit in a steadily run contest.
- Despite owner Michael O’Leary’s efforts to quash the hype, SAMCRO arrives with a sizeable reputation and his racecourse performances say that he deserves it.
- I Like To Move It the “wise guy” horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race.
- The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 career starts at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32.
- Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet.
Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone’s first as a ten-year-old, that they’d worked out how to ride him. In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts – including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it’s not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he’ll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.
Paul Kealy’s five-step guide to finding a winner
If you’re John Butler or Mick Appleby – with the greatest respect to those genuinely fine exponents of their craft – you don’t have the luxury of a conveyor belt of million-pound yearlings lolloping into your barn annually. He has progressed all season, and even though he may have put in his poorest performance so far, he clearly has the profile to continue stepping up in distance on route to a very promising chasing career. He has a huge career ahead of him and the question now is, does he go chasing, or does he remain over hurdles with a route towards the 2022 Champion hurdle.
Horse Racing in the UK
It does seem a race where all of the preceding trials have been run on different ground and/or under very different pace scenarios. There will be lots of to and fro in the six weeks from now until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. A few positions on shorties at fancier prices, for all that the spectre of our picks winning but not by far enough looms, may help to wile the worst of these remaining Covid days. Put The Kettle On jumped poorly under Sean Flanagan when slammed by CPS and Notebook last time but can be expected to improve both for a return to Cheltenham and the presumed return of Aidan Coleman to the saddle. In that light, she’s of minor interest at 14/1 each way and also worth at least a second glance when the ‘without the favourite’ market emerges. But it is hard to see her turning tables with her last day vanquisher.
Tuesday 14th March’s Racecards for UK & Ireland
Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well. Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie’s maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed.
Horse racing tips: Newton Abbot and Nottingham – Wednesday October 30
Another thing to consider is that new sports betting sites are more likely to offer generous offers to new punters (read our BlackType review or the Karamba sports review for more details). IMPERVIOUS holds strong credentials to land the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase Bolts Up Daily at 4.50. Recently purchased by top owner J P McManus, she can extend her winning sequence. The daughter of Shantou displayed her immense ability with a smart success at Punchestown in January, giving a pair of well-touted geldings weight and scoring with plenty in hand.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips
This is perhaps the simplest of the five differentiators. We’re looking for races where all runners are exposed; that is, they’re experienced and have shown pretty much all they have to the handicapper already. In such races, we are not expecting a progressive horse to leap forward seven to ten pounds; rather, we expect that the horse best suited to conditions will have a great chance…
Champion Chase – 2-0 to the Girls
Partnered again by Patrick Mullins, he’s expected to perform well. Mullins also saddles Cantico, ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, who cruised to victory at Navan last month. But there’s a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin. Add in this year’s Troytown and former Thyestes Chase winner Coko Beach and a raft of credible place contenders at least and it makes for what is very likely the deepest field in Glenfarclas history.
- Plus we have Uttoxeter who are subject to a third inspection.
- The jockey with the most winners in each championship will take the title.
- The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more.
- Henry Dwyer’s charge had finished fourth on her British debut in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month, but she clearly enjoyed the faster ground at Royal Ascot to become Australia’s sixth winner of this race by a length.
- DOUVAN Suffered serious injury in this race a year ago and not run since; hugely talented but remains to be seen if he can recover that level of form.
- There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park.
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The long term disciplined approach is essential in true professional betting. I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds. There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.
Horse Racing Tips: A 10/1 pick tops our Chelmsford fancies tonight
Fleur Au Fusil caught my eye with her recent Leopardstown victory, but she’ll require the hood to help settle her if she’s to get home, although the faster race tempo should also help. Both Jalon D’oudairies & Romeo Coolio, trained by Gordon Elliott, stand out as strong contenders, and it’s difficult to choose between the two. Teeshan appears to be the top choice among the British runners and can secure a place, or even victory, in the race.
Tiger Roll wins the Cross Country Chase
“At Doncaster and Sandown he maybe had to run to the level he showed last year to win them, but I think even with defeat in the Lockinge, his run told us he was a Group One horse and today confirmed it. “I’m delighted for my team, everyone works so hard at home. Docklands emerged from the chasing pack to lay down a challenge, but Charyn had enough in the tank to repel the runner-up and had two-and-a-quarter lengths in hand at the line. In accounting for stablemate Haatem in the Irish Guineas he as expected got back on track, and duly lined up against a very deep field in the day one highlight at Royal Ascot.
Bleu Berry wins the Coral Cup
Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established. ZENTA is an interesting runner here for the same stable and JP McManus’ retained rider Mark Walsh takes the ride. She jumped very well in France and was picked up for powerful connections. She only made she Irish debut about 3 weeks ago and ploughed through every hurdle but hit the line strong. The overall performance was impressive considering how much she did wrong, and I expect her to massively improve for it.
On ratings she has a few pounds to find with some of these but her trainer is making optimistic noises (for whatever that is worth). It will be quick and there will be some trouble in transit for a few. Hopefully Frodon gets them spaced out behind and all have their chance. Saint Sam and Magic Daze are the most likely leaders, but Blue Lord and Riviere d’Etel have led or pressed the pace in at least two of their most recent four starts as well.
Cheltenham Festival Stats for All Races
One who would be right at home in the mud and at a massive price, too, is Favour And Fortune, second in the aforementioned Aintree G1, and a winner on heavy previously. He was just touched off in a muddling three horse race last time (heavy) with this tempo expected to be more his metier. He was thumped in the Champion Bumper here a year ago (soft), however, so just might not be good enough. The big roar that accompanies this race sometimes feel like a racecourse full of punters has been holding its collective breath for 361 days (or 362 this time around). And the traditional curtain-raiser is usually a very satisfying conclusion to the prior hiatus, pitching together a raft of exciting unexposed types all with even grander aspirations down the line.
She should have plenty more to come over this trip and, unlike the favourite, we know for certain that she’ll stay. In the possibly the most open Derby in recent memory, you can give a chance to almost all the runners. He finished off strongly when fourth at Wolverhampton on his latest start. MAHLER MISSION has been kept fresh since a fine second in the Coral Gold Cup last Autumn.
- If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver.
- Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.
- In-play betting is arguably a little less effective in horse racing compared to say, football or tennis.
- There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so.
- Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established.
- Her stablemate Nashwa is another with huge ability but is likely to need this run after a break.
In that context, Shishkin – who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L – looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more. His trainer is having a wobble just now but knows better than anyone – even Willie M – how to campaign a precocious two-mile chaser. Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a ‘banker’ (relatively speaking). Plenty to chew on in the above ahead of what looks an open and fascinating betting puzzle.
Racing to the second last he switched to the outside, found some better ground and a bit of daylight, and in a few strides had gathered in all but Min. The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour. I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.
Still, better will have been expected overall and better will be needed if Shishkin’s price is not to flirt with odds-against between now and mid-March. Last year’s Arkle winner has excellent Cheltenham form, being three from three at the track including that Festival score. Dan Skelton trains this mare and she’s looked very good either side of a two length third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle in December. Shady Operator could be an apt winner for players of this slightly snide angle.
So we can get down to business, the business of this post being to review current trainer form for the big guns heading into Cheltenham Festival 2021. A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.
Azzerti is a best price 12/1 at present, which looks a bit of value. Interesting cards at both Fakenham and Sandown this afternoon. We are going to look at two races from the latter where the going is on the heavy side of Soft. Last seen on the track when second at the Kempton Christmas meeting in another valuable handicap. Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future. Plaisir D’Amour runs from the Venetia Williams stable, who are in great form.
So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.
Her stablemate Nashwa is another with huge ability but is likely to need this run after a break. So that leaves Guineas heroine Elmalka and See The Fire as the main dangers. Despite being novices, most horses running in the Festival novice races have an official rating.
Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.
That’s a potential knock for the strong Willie Mullins-trained fancy, Stattler, who is unbeaten in two fencing contests. In 2013, Mullins won with the unbeaten-in-three Back In Focus, but more recently both 9/4 Ballyward (fell) and 10/11 Carefully Selected (unseated) have succumbed to their inexperience at the obstacles. Still, Stattler’s form credentials are robust and his stamina is assured if his leaping holds up at the expected quicker tempo on quicker turf. Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie’s contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
So it is that, again excepting the impostor Lord W, every other Gold Cup scorer this century has returned 12/1 or shorter. Joseph O’Brien won this in 2019 with Band Of Outlaws, and saddles Champion Green this time. A relative slow starter he broke his maiden at the fourth time of asking, over nine furlongs at Punchestown. The second won next time and was rated 89 when taking on handicappers for the first time, the third – also trained by Joseph – has won a couple of minor hurdle races, and the fourth won a Leopardstown maiden next time.
Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about.
And welcome to our coverage of day two of the Cheltenham Festival. There are eight races on the card, starting with two Grade Ones, the Novices’ Hurdle at 1.30pm and the Novices’ Chase 40 minutes later. The pick of the day is, of course, the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3.30pm.
She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this. She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice. She’s genuine and always runs her race and still only a 7-year-old there is plenty of improvement to come from her I feel.
Gordon also has Braeside, whose two career wins have come on heavy ground, as Profiler handily highlights. He’s slow enough for the old four-miler but probably not quick enough for this classier, shorter iteration of the race. This is a really tricky race with if’s and but’s about most of them. In the absence of a reliable option, I’ll take a chance on Heaven Help Us being trained for the day in what seem to be her favoured conditions.
